Rangers Could Be Promoted to Champions League Third Qualifying Round Amid UEFA Shake-Up
Rangers are set to enter the Champions League second qualifying round next season—though that could change due to recent developments.
While the Light Blues remain focused on their current Europa League campaign, with a last-16 tie coming up next month after bypassing the play-off knockout stage, attention is also shifting toward next season’s European prospects. Unless they pull off an unlikely comeback in the Scottish Premiership title race, Rangers are expected to enter UEFA’s premier competition in the second qualifying round of the league path, meaning they’d need to clear three rounds to reach the lucrative group stage.
However, there’s a scenario that could see them bumped up to the third qualifying round—the same stage where they were eliminated this season by Dynamo Kyiv at Hampden Park. This would be a significant boost because even if Rangers were to lose at that stage, they’d secure a spot in the Europa League group stage. According to Football Meets Data, several factors would need to align for this promotion to happen.
The Champions League Qualification Scenario
Rangers’ hopes hinge on the outcome of the current Europa League season. If the eventual winners qualify for the Champions League via their domestic league, an extra spot opens in the group stage. While Rangers’ strong club coefficient puts them in contention for that spot, UEFA’s ‘leapfrog rule’ prevents them from going directly into the group stage if the Scottish champions (likely Celtic) haven’t qualified through their league.
However, this restriction wouldn’t apply if Rangers defy the odds and win the Europa League themselves. Barring that, another team would be promoted from the third qualifying round to the group stage—and Rangers are currently in line to claim that spot.
Could Rangers Benefit Regardless?
It’s mostly positive news for Rangers, although several conditions need to be met. Interestingly, there’s a bizarre twist that could see them inadvertently helping the team that finishes third in the Scottish Premiership secure guaranteed European group stage football—without securing it for themselves.
This ‘glitch,’ highlighted by the Scotland’s Coefficient account, occurs if the Scottish Cup winners also finish in the top two of the Premiership. In that case, their European spot would pass to the third-placed team, currently Dundee United. This would send Dundee United into the Europa League play-offs, guaranteeing at least a Europa Conference League group stage berth.
Ironically, if Rangers enter the Champions League in the second qualifying round, they wouldn’t have that same guarantee for themselves. A similar situation unfolded in Serbia last season when Partizan Belgrade, despite finishing second, failed to qualify through three UEFA competitions. Meanwhile, Backa Topola, who finished third, benefited from Red Star Belgrade’s cup win and secured a Europa Conference League group stage spot despite an early exit in the Europa League play-offs.
What’s Next?
While Rangers’ European future remains uncertain, the potential for an unexpected boost in their Champions League qualifying path could prove pivotal. With their Europa League ambitions still alive and several European qualification scenarios at play, the coming months will be crucial for the Light Blues both on and off the pitch.
