The 2025 NRL season is shaping up to be another tricky one for tipsters, with major player transfers during the offseason shaking up team dynamics. Whether clubs are rebuilding or aiming to retain their edge, predicting all eight match winners each round will be a tall order. That’s why each week we’ll highlight three key matchups to give you an edge.
The Safe Bet
Penrith Panthers vs. Brisbane Broncos – Suncorp Stadium, Sunday May 4, 4:05pm (AEST)
This round might be the toughest yet when it comes to finding a reliable pick. Even matches that seem straightforward are being affected by injuries and suspensions.
So, in a surprising move—and after consistently misjudging the Panthers all year—I’m going against the reigning champs. It might sound outrageous, but Penrith have looked anything but dominant lately. Last week against Manly, they struggled from the outset, with misfiring communication and poor timing.
Meanwhile, the Broncos were outstanding in dismantling the previously unbeaten Bulldogs. Adam Reynolds was in vintage form, with his kicking game and team cohesion tearing apart a solid defence.
Sure, the Panthers could prove me wrong yet again, but Brisbane are as close to a “sure thing” as you’ll find this Magic Round.
Safe bet pick: Broncos
The Coin Flip
New Zealand Warriors vs. North Queensland Cowboys – Suncorp Stadium, Saturday May 3, 5:30pm (AEST)
With so many even contests in Magic Round, this week’s toss-up could have easily gone to Roosters-Dolphins, Storm-Raiders, or Tigers-Dragons. Nearly every fixture lately feels like a 50/50 call.
The Warriors handled the Knights last week without ever needing to hit full stride. Their defence has tightened up, their attack remains sharp, and they’ve cleaned up past ball-handling issues. They’re also hard to break through up front and thrive on turning that into attacking pressure.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, had a mixed showing. After a poor finish to the first half against the Titans, they exploded after the break, scoring seven unanswered tries. They’ve got the firepower, but still show worrying signs defensively.
Will the Warriors stay in the hunt for the top spots, or will the Cowboys leapfrog them?
Coin toss pick: Warriors
The Long Shot
Cronulla Sharks vs. Parramatta Eels – Suncorp Stadium, Friday May 2, 6:00pm (AEST)
The Sharks were outplayed by the Tigers last week, with their attack unable to find rhythm. Their performance was a letdown from a team capable of brilliance one week and inconsistency the next. Star halves Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall can be electric or invisible, depending on the night. Still, the Sharks are expected to rebound and are favoured by the bookies.
The Eels had a bye last week, but before that, Mitchell Moses made a triumphant return. His influence was felt on both ends—boosting their defensive resolve and adding structure and precision in attack. The Tigers had no answers for the version of Parramatta they faced.
The Sharks should win on paper, but if you’re looking for an underdog with potential, Parramatta might be your value play.
Roughie pick: Eels
